I agree Caruana is the clear favorite, but at these odds he seems slightly overvalued and Nepo undervalued? Keep in mind the margins of quality here are slight, and furthermore Nepo won it the last two times. The tournament could in fact come down to whoever can beat Nijat twice. While that correlates with overall quality of play, willingness to take risks may be the decisive factor. The tournament is a short one, and there are plenty of past instances (e.g., Wesley So) of players going on an incredible roll for dozens of games, before setting back down into normal performance levels. So I say the field is open. Keep in mind this is truly a “winner-take-all” tournament, and chess ratings instead reflect mean performance, and so you need to fine tune your intuitions a bit here.
Who do you think will win?
Magnus, by the way, seems not entirely impressed with the field, Caruana aside.
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